We’re just three days away from Halloween, and if you have little ones eager to fill their candy bags or Saturday night plans you’ll want to pay close attention to this forecast.
To be honest, this forecast is a little tricky. The rain we’re watching is associated with a small area of low pressure called a disturbance. These systems can be difficult to pin down because their small size makes it challenging to nail down exactly where and when the rain will develop.
Here’s the treat and the trick: The forecast will likely change as we get closer to Halloween. I’ll update this article daily as new information comes in, so don’t carve your plans in stone just yet.
Keep watching KPRC 2 and check back at click2houston.com for the latest updates. You don’t want a forecast surprise lurking in the shadows!
Here’s the Halloween outlook for Houston right now:
It’s looking warm and humid, with a chance of showers that could complicate some Halloween plans. The big question is timing. Will the rain trick us, or will it clear out in time for the candy hunt?
One of our long-range weather models at KPRC 2 brings the disturbance through Southeast Texas around noon Saturday. On the model, the red shading represents heavier rain and possible lightning.
If this timing holds, it would be a real Halloween treat. The rain would move through before the main trick-or-treating hours, leaving the evening in much better shape for the kids.
But remember, this is just one model run. Small disturbances can speed up, slow down or shift their path. We’ll keep watching it.
This may be the sweet spot for trick-or-treating. In this scenario, the disturbance has moved out, taking the rain with it. There’s still rain to our west, but it would take several hours to reach us.
It will feel muggy, and sidewalks could be damp, but there wouldn’t be any active storms in the Houston area in this model scenario.
I’m keeping a 40% chance of rain at 5 PM for now. Why? Because these small disturbances can be notoriously tricky to time. A slight change in speed or track could change the forecast.
My advice: Keep checking back before heading out with your little ones.
Here’s where the forecast gets a little spooky.
The latest model run brings another round of rain into our western communities around 8 PM. This is the first run to show a second wave of showers Saturday night.
If this scenario plays out, some trick-or-treaters could find themselves dodging raindrops while comparing candy hauls.
But don’t be surprised if future updates move or even remove this late-night rain. This part of the forecast is still uncertain, and we’ll be watching it closely.
Halloween falls on a Saturday this year, which means plenty of nighttime parties and celebrations.
I have a 20% chance of rain at 11 PM. Most locations will stay dry, but a few showers can’t be ruled out.
If you’re heading out for a party, have a plan to keep your costume dry. Nobody wants their Halloween look to go from boo-tiful to soaked!
Most importantly, have fun and stay safe.
The disturbance doesn’t look particularly strong, and current projections suggest rainfall totals ranging from a trace to around 1 inch.
Of course, some neighborhoods could get more rain than others, depending on where the showers develop. We’ll refine those estimates as the system gets closer.
If you’re hoping for crisp autumn air, I have a little trick for you: Houston’s forecast is looking warm and humid!
At 6 PM Saturday, temperatures should range from the lower to mid-70s across much of the area, with the exception of Crockett and College Station.
You won’t need a jacket over that costume.
I’m forecasting a high of 84° Saturday afternoon. That would put us in the running for one of Houston’s warmer Halloweens, although it wouldn’t break the record.
Houston’s warmest Halloween on record was in 2004, when the high reached 88°.
And for a truly frightening weather fact, the wettest Halloween was in 2015, when Houston recorded 5.14 inches of rain.
Thankfully, our current forecast doesn’t suggest anything close to that kind of washout. Still, we have a few more days to see how this disturbance behaves.
